Massive Main Force Funds Bottom-Fish in A-Share Crash, Locking Downside Space
**Domestic and International Financial News / A-Share Market Outlook**
Juicy News 1: A-Share Market Experiences Severe Turbulence, but Long-Term Capital Remains Committed to Increasing Positions! Downside Space Will Be Locked!
Event: The latest data shows that on October 8th, the net subscription amount for equity ETFs reached 106.126 billion yuan, marking the first time that the daily net subscription amount for ETFs has exceeded 100 billion yuan. At the same time, the net value of the first batch of China Securities A500 ETFs fluctuated sharply, indicating that these products have been rapidly built up.
Commentary: After the National Day holiday, the A-share market experienced severe turbulence, but even so, the enthusiasm of external funds to enter the market has not been impacted. According to the latest data from institutions, the single-day subscription amount for equity ETFs on October 8th has exceeded 100 billion yuan, setting a historical record! On October 9th, when the market plummeted, the trading volume of several established broad-based ETFs such as the Easy Fund ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, and Huatai-Pine Rich Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF remained very active! It is worth noting that the net value of many recently issued ETFs has already fluctuated, indicating that this batch of funds has begun to build positions in succession! In addition, Jingyang has also noticed that many broad-based holders include institutions such as securities firms, private equity, trusts, and insurance capital. This long-term capital buying into broad-based funds is clearly for long-term holdings and is also the result of regulatory authorities increasing their efforts to promote long-term capital into the market.
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Market Forecast: In the recent trading sessions, a large amount of funds have entered the market through various channels, with direct stock purchases being just one way. Many people have also entered the market through funds. After subscribing to fund products, new funds will also build positions in succession, bringing continuous incremental funds to the A-share market. In yesterday's afternoon article, Jingyang had already said that external funds would not completely lose interest in the A-share market due to one or two days of turbulence; although there was a reduction in positions by market funds on Tuesday, the institutional buying increased on Wednesday's sharp drop, and the strength of speculative capital bottom-fishing was even greater! From this, it can be seen that the market will not fall for a few days, and the supporting funds at the bottom will continue to emerge, which will also lock the downside of the market. Jingyang believes that the short-selling sentiment in the entire market yesterday has not been fully released. Today's more optimistic trend is to probe the lower shadow line and close near the 5-day line, and the entire market will gradually stabilize in the following days; if it goes worse, the market will also stop and stabilize above the 10-day line.
**Industry/Sector/Concept News Review**
Juicy News 2: The Central Office and the State Office Jointly Issue a Document! Data Elements Welcome the First Top-Level Design!
Event: The "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources," jointly issued by the Central Office and the State Office, were released on October 9th. This is the first time that the central level has systematically deployed the development and utilization of public data resources.
Commentary: This news is good for the data element sector! Recently, there has been a very dense flow of good news for the data element sector. In yesterday's morning "A-Share Market News," Jingyang also mentioned the speech by Liu Liehong, the director of the National Data Bureau, at the State Council Information Office these days. The "Opinions on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Public Data Resources," jointly issued by the Central Office and the State Office, is regarded by the industry as the first top-level design document for the development and utilization of public data! In terms of the A-share market, data elements are an important branch of the big data theme, but in recent years, the overall heat of the sector has not been as high as other popular hard technologies, and the performance of listed companies has not been released, so institutional attention is limited. However, according to Jingyang's observation, with many recent benefits, institutions and speculative capital have begun to enter the market. Before the holiday, two companies in the entire sector were slightly increased by institutions, and during yesterday's sharp drop, three stocks in the sector were low-absorbed by speculative capital!
Speculation Cycle: Short-termBreakout Strength: ★★★★
Trading Strategy: Driven by favorable policy developments, there are signs of large capital entering the data element sector, but the sector's fundamentals are still not very strong. Therefore, short-term breakout strength can be expected, while medium-term sustainability needs to be observed. In terms of strategy, after consecutive pullbacks, one can consider lightly positioned short-term absorption of relatively active stocks within the sector.
Related Companies: Shenzhen Sangda A (000032), Hui Bo Yun Tong (301316), Tianyuan Di Ke (300047), Tai Chi Shares (002368), etc.
Juicy News Three: Both China and the United States' Starlink plans have good news, and commercial space is about to accelerate development!
Event: According to media reports, recently, the research team led by Professor Yang Jun from the National University of Defense Technology has been continuously conducting scientific research, inventing the "precision measurement chain," "global control chain," and "time-sensitive data chain" of large complex constellations, combining three chains into one global constellation flexible multi-mode inter-satellite link, allowing the Beidou satellite navigation system to provide global services. At the same time, according to SpaceX's official news, the company plans to conduct the fifth flight test of the Starship on October 13th.
Comment: This news is good for the commercial space sector. Commercial space, along with low-altitude economy, was written into the government work report for the first time at the beginning of this year. In addition, China's three major ten-thousand-star constellation plans are all scheduled to be launched this year, making this year also considered the first year of the big outbreak of China's commercial space! In terms of the A-share market, commercial space, low-altitude economy, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and unmanned driving are the five strongest branches of technology stocks this year. Supported by high industry prosperity, they repeatedly saw the addition of positions by institutions and speculative capital in the first half of the year when the entire market was extremely weak. Recently, the entire A-share market has gradually warmed up, but from trading data, Jingyang has not yet found signs of institutions and speculative capital returning to commercial space, but it does not rule out that the willingness of main funds to return to the field may be strengthened before and after the above-mentioned good news is implemented!
Speculation Cycle: Medium-term
Breakout Strength: ★★★
Trading Strategy: The fundamental logic of commercial space is relatively strong, but there is no obvious recent capital inflow in terms of capital. In terms of strategy, due to the support of the fundamentals, patient investors can consider lurking before the sector rotation. However, if you only want to make short-term gains, you need to wait for the clear signal of the return of institutions or speculative capital to follow.
Related Companies: Zhonghai Da (300177), Haige Communication (002465), Chaoji Shares (301005), Shanghai Hanxun (300762), etc.Breaking News Four: More Real Estate Stimulus Measures Emerge in Various Regions, Guangzhou's Housing Market Has Been Quickly Revitalized!
Event: Yesterday, Chengdu issued a notice on "Implementing the Household Registration for Legal Property Housing Personnel" to solicit opinions and suggestions. This implies that after the implementation of the notice, purchasing a home will allow for household registration in Chengdu. Hangzhou also stated that commercial mortgages will no longer distinguish between first and second homes, with the minimum down payment ratio unified at 15%.
Commentary: This news is favorable for the real estate sector. Following the central bank's lead in reducing the interest rates on existing mortgages, many local governments have also begun to issue a new round of stimulus measures, indicating that the real estate market is once again entering a period of intense policy implementation! Under the stimulus of favorable policies, the real estate markets in several first-tier cities have recently seen a significant increase in both price and volume. In Guangzhou, many real estate projects have seen a surge in popularity, and the number of subscriptions has also exploded! In the A-share market, the real estate sector has recently garnered considerable attention, not only due to policy benefits targeting the real estate sector but also in connection with the state-owned enterprise value management plan promoted by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, as well as broad-based passive layouts. According to Jingyang's observations, in the past two days, even as real estate stocks adjusted with the market, institutions continued to gradually accumulate positions with small purchases. Although the sector index has broken through the 5-day moving average ahead of the overall market, considering that many institutional funds have already intervened, the sector index is expected to stabilize above the 10-day moving average after retracting and breaking through the 5-day moving average!
Speculation Cycle: Short-term
Explosion Strength: ★★★★
Trading Strategy: The real estate sector is a typical policy-driven sector, lacking fundamental support. Only when there is a dense array of policy benefits and significant capital involvement does the entire sector have short-term opportunities. Recently, both dense policy benefits and significant capital involvement have occurred simultaneously, so it is possible to consider light position absorption on the short side when the sector retracts.
Related Companies: Shenzhen Zhenye A (000006), Black Peony (600510), Pudong JinQiao (600639), Shi Rong Zhaoye (002016), etc.
Breaking News Five: Tesla Will Hold an Important Product Introduction Meeting Tomorrow Morning, with Autonomous Driving Becoming the Focus!
Event: From 10 am to 12 pm tomorrow, Tesla will hold the "Robotaxi Day" event at the Warner Bros. Studio in Burbank, California. This press conference will officially introduce Tesla's Robotaxi product.
Commentary: This news is favorable for the autonomous driving sector. This press conference is seen as the debut of Tesla's Robotaxi. According to previous arrangements by Tesla, the Robotaxi is expected to enter our country in the first quarter of next year, and Tesla will also allow car owners to earn money by deploying their Cybercabs as taxis on the ride-hailing network. After Tesla's autonomous driving technology enters our country, it will create a catfish effect, stimulating the rapid development of our country's autonomous driving technology! In the A-share market, the autonomous driving theme has previously been hotly speculated due to the commercial success of companies like Luobo Kuaibao. Considering that the entire industry is still in its infancy, the future growth space is quite broad. It is worth noting that yesterday, while the entire market plummeted, institutional funds suddenly absorbed a large amount of the connected vehicle segment within the autonomous driving theme, while retail investors simultaneously made significant purchases in the ride-hailing sector!Hype Cycle: Midline
Burst Strength: ★★★★
Trading Strategy: As mentioned earlier, both autonomous driving and commercial space have solid fundamental logics. The difference is that there is no obvious sign of large capital inflow in commercial space recently, while the two main branches of the autonomous driving theme saw significant increases in positions by institutions and retail investors during yesterday's sharp decline. Therefore, the short-term elasticity of autonomous driving is greater than that of commercial space, and one can look for active stocks to buy on dips.
Related Companies: Gaoxin Xinxing (300098), Tianmai Technology (300807), Ligong Guangke (300557), Wanji Technology (300552), etc.
[Dragon and Tiger List/Retail Investors/Institutional Investors' Position Adjustment Analysis]
Key targets of retail investors: Ningbo Sangtian Road: Changshan Beiming (Huawei HarmonyOS) 22.6434 million, Runhe Software (Huawei HarmonyOS) 33.007 million, Guomin Technology (Semiconductor) 25.6332 million, Dazhong Transportation (Ride-hailing) 192 million, Jinjiang Online (Ride-hailing) 15.8197 million; Zhang Mengzhu: Runhe Software (Huawei HarmonyOS) 37.4895 million, SMIC (Semiconductor) 458 million, Hengyin Technology (Data Elements) 10.1769 million; Xu Liusheng: Hang Seng Electronics (Diversified Finance) 91.5127 million, Silan Microelectronics (Semiconductor) 54.6675 million; Fang Xinxia: Tuowei Information (Huawei HarmonyOS) 65.8129 million; Zuo Shouxinyi: Yanhua Intelligence (Data Elements) 12.5676 million.
Institutional funds single-day purchase (over 10 million): SMIC 688981, Semiconductor, 2 institutions bought and 1 institution sold, net institutional purchase of 522.9602 million, which is the stock with the most net institutional purchase yesterday. Hengyin Technology 603106, Data Elements, 2 institutions bought and 2 institutions sold, net institutional purchase of 77.2979 million accounting for 16.60%, which is the stock with the highest net institutional purchase ratio yesterday.
Institutional funds consecutive purchase within 10 days (over 10 million): Guoke Tiancheng 301571,次新股, from September 30 to October 9, institutional funds net bought twice, with a net purchase of 37.8462 million on October 9, the institutional purchase volume increased significantly compared to before. Yitong Century 300310, Internet of Vehicles, from September 20 to October 9, institutional funds net bought twice, with a net purchase of 15.9168 million on October 9, the institutional purchase volume remained basically the same as before.
Institutional funds overall trend analysis: The previous trading day saw 27 stocks with net institutional purchases over 10 million and 44 stocks with net institutional sales over 10 million. On Wednesday, the market fell sharply, but during the rapid decline, both institutional buying and selling increased synchronously to a super strong range, with buying increasing more! Although institutional funds continued to show a large net outflow, the outflow decreased compared to Tuesday, indicating an increased willingness to buy on dips during the sharp decline!
Institutional funds sector flow analysis: Looking at the sectoral fund flow, there was no reduction in the main hot spots (recent institutional main attack direction), and during the sharp decline, institutional funds significantly bought into the autonomous driving and Internet of Vehicles branches, and the short-term heat of the sector is expected to increase. In addition, there was a sharp division in diversified finance, but the net institutional inflow was larger, and real estate was also slightly increased.In terms of non-mainline hot spots (recent institutional participation directions), the sub-branch of diversified finance, digital currency, CPO, automotive parts, industrial metals, low-altitude economy, folding screens, white liquor, and industrial mother machines have seen a small increase in positions; semiconductors, which soared in the last two trading days, saw a significant reduction in institutional funds on Wednesday.次新股、信创、医疗器械、化学制药、环境治理 have been moderately reduced, while consumer electronics、AIPC、CRO、liquid-cooled servers、automobiles、home appliances、education、data elements、construction machinery have seen a small reduction.
Overall, on the first trading day after the holiday, the trading activity of institutional seats has significantly increased, with both buy and sell orders several times larger than before the holiday, but sell orders have always been more. It is worth noting that on Wednesday, when there was a sharp decline, not only did the willingness of institutions to bottom fish strengthen, but the low absorption actions of speculative capital were even more obvious! Looking at the fund flow of the plate, the plates that have been active these days have all shown fund divergence, with diversified financial institutions and speculative capital still adding positions, and there are signs that institutional attention is shifting towards the Internet of Vehicles. In addition to continuing to buy Huawei, speculative capital shows signs of focusing on ride-hailing in the theme of autonomous driving. In terms of semiconductors, institutions mainly reduce positions, while speculative capital is adding positions. Therefore, the direction of the joint efforts of institutions and speculative capital is diversified finance and autonomous driving!